The lessons -- will we ever learn?

Lesson One: Marcos was right. When he became president in 1965, he already set out to do the basic physical and socio-economic infrastructure of a new nation. Reparation payments from Japan went to road infrastructure to link the northern tip of the archipelago to the southernmost islands; public investments went into agricultural expansion for food self-sufficiency; and after the experience of the 1971-1973 skyrocketing of oil and energy prices, Marcos invested national resources heavily on oil and energy development. If these programs for energy and fuel self-reliance had been allowed by the succeeding government of Cory Aquino to proceed as planned, we would not be suffering from the horrendous and nationally enervating fuel and energy price crisis we have today.

Lesson two: Cory Aquino was dead wrong. She was wrong in scuttling the Marcos

food, fuel and energy programs. She was wrong in consenting to the

de-industrialization of the country’s economy, selling off the Mariveles

vehicle body stamping plant to China and scuttling the engine manufacturing plant in Bicutan, among many other industrial operations dismantled, and worse, scuttling the energy programs and initiating the sell-off of energy companies.

Even Cory’s so-called “restoration of democracy” was wrong because she converted Marcos’ nationalist authoritarianism to a patrician plutocracy of the old elite-feudal aristocracy of Philippine society -- the landed Ayalas, the sugar baron Lopezes, the cacique Aboitizes, et al. She started everything that is now eating our society up like a plague.

Lesson three: the jury is still out on whether the Filipino people are capable of learning its lessons from history. Of course, many individual Filipinos, as well as, many particular sectors of Philippine society have learned the lessons well; because of those lessons, many Filipinos began rejecting leadership choices offered by traditional moral “authorities” such as the elite Makati Business Club, the foreign diplomatic community, the academe, and the Church whose “high and mighty” Cardinal Sin proclaimed “anybody but Erap.” The people voted Erap to the presidency and were not disappointed by his populist measures to ease the nation’s economic burdens. Not very long after, Edsa II came along to depose the leader who tried to start pro-people reforms.

The “Filipino people” is a collective term encompassing all classes and ideological shades of Filipinos, but within that collective body is a small powerful group whose inordinate influence comes from its colonial ties with the historical American-British overlords. This small powerful group is often tagged as the Makati Business Club and its allies in “civil society,” a.k.a. “the elite,” the same group that led and funded Edsa I and then Edsa II, and invariably ends up the winner in every political turmoil and regime

change. The vast majority of the Filipino people have not been able to overcome the inordinate sway of this small foreign-backed elite, including the conscientious elements of armed forces sworn to defend the nation and the Constitution and entrusted with the nation’s powers of coercion.

To this day, this small power elite continues to ravage the country with its rapacious, parasitic greed as surrogates of foreign powers -- by sponsoring the electricity privatization law Epira, designed to steal our national patrimony such as hydroelectric and geothermal resources; by acting as agents in the swindle of the national transmission grid (Transco) in behalf of the Carlyle group and the State Grid of China; by enforcing oil privatization and deregulation that swiped the state oil companies and subsidiaries of Petron; and by sucking out VAT collections for the IMF-WB and the global banking mafia which get 75% for debt service. As long as this small power elite rules, there

shall be no salvation for this nation from the predatory feeding of the Anglo-US vampires on its lifeblood.

While this power elite rules, disguised behind the façade of “democratic and electoral politics,” and controls through corruption and threats of “people power,” this country will remain an enslaved nation, helpless against the diktats of Western economic exploitation.

The current manipulated oil price crisis is a repeat of the 1971-1973 detonation of oil prices, which was designed by the US to recoup its financial losses from the Vietnam War. Nixon severed the dollar from the Gold Standard to default on paying its debt to the world, which has hitherto believed dollar debts were redeemable in gold. Kissinger arranged with the Saudis to accept only dollars for oil, generating astronomical petrodollars, which was arranged to be deposited in US Treasury bills to further shore them up.

The current round of wild oil price upsurge is the manipulation and hoarding of oil futures contracts by speculative hedge funds. They use financial leverage provided by major banks and financial companies with directorates interlocked with global oil companies, such as British Petroleum and Goldman Sachs cited in Chris Cook’s article, “Oil Market Manipulation.” This is being done to help the US recover its losses from the collapse of the dollar and the subprime crisis.

None of this manipulation is possible without the passive or active support of the US, British and European oil producing, refining and trading powers. The only way for a nation to defy such manipulation is to have its indigenous sources of energy, and the Philippines has what it takes by way of its geothermal and hydro resources, and more oil and gas in the long term.

Marcos started the first stages of energy self-sufficiency and industrial take-off. Only the sabotage delayed them until they were scuttled after a farcical “revolution” that fooled a great majority of the people. Will we be fooled again this time around?

There are a number of false leaders already poised to offer themselves as the “hope” of this nation with all the “democratic” rhetoric. What we really need is leadership dedicated to the nation and its aspiration for energy, food and economic freedom; and that means not another Cory Aquino, FVR or Gloria who’ll only cater to Big Business and the foreign powers. From the political arena, I can only see the likeness of true Filipino leadership in President Joseph E. Estrada, whose slogan, “Walang tutulong sa Pilipino kundi kapwa Pilipino,” defines his qualification.

From the ranks of alternative leaders, I can only pick from the Bagong Katipuneros (a.k.a. Magdalos), to include Gen. Danilo Lim and Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, whose very image and names embody the nationalist fervor and determination. By election or others means -- by all means -- we need leadership such as these. This is our last lesson from history.

The Daily Tribune Column

July 11, 2008

The Filipino Food and Fuel Freedom Initiative

DIE HARD III

7-7-2008

Who can help but not pity this nation, its people and its future? So rich that hordes of foreign invaders have laid claim to its lands and shores for the past hundred years, yet so poor that its people have been “shanghaied” by the millions to work across the globe as modern indentured servants, with its government held hostage by debts and threats of economic destruction by the same foreign powers that hold the key to its oil, food and financial survival.

The greatest pity, above all, is that all these could have easily been thwarted, restoring the riches of this land to the nation in an instant if we only had a leadership able to say no to the mendicancy and timidity.

All through our written history, there has not been a time since the Madjapahit and Sri Vishayan periods that the people of these islands have become this pitiful and totally helpless against the corrosive vicissitudes of hostile external forces and events forced upon it.

Maybe our being at the center of the crisis has accentuated the self-pity; and it may have been as bad as or worse than the Second World War. Yet some old folks argue that life was better back then as the next town or barrio was never too far away, and food was never this expensive.

Today, the Philippines is totally helpless in the face of the manipulated global energy price crisis even as it sits on 10 gigawatts of geothermal and similar mini or large scale hydro-electric potential. What tragedy indeed!

We ask: Why not harness this 10-gigawatt-potential in light of our actual consumption of electricity totaling 12 gigawatts? Why aren’t our country’s so-called leaders tapping it, when this would free us from foreign energy dependence? Why not have this as our top priority and forget about other forms of energy that would still make us dependent on foreign suppliers, like nuclear energy generation which I totally support but only as a last resort given our geothermal and hydroelectric potential which this treasonous Angelo Reyes keeps harping on?

It’s worth noting that geothermal energy also bears the solution to the transport fuel problem. Iceland, for instance, uses glacial fjord hydro-electric power to catalyze water into hydrogen in huge conversion plants. The Philippines, in like manner, should use its geothermal electricity for transition into a hydrogen economy.

The other good news is that this is not the only promising “free” energy for us, as ocean wave power is of even much larger potential, seeing that our 7,100 islands are each a potential power plant. Imagine, thousands of power plants all over the country just waiting to be commissioned!

Biofuels are also an alternative, but not the ones derived from food such as corn. Uncontrollable algae and hyacinths hold tremendous promise in a tropical setting like ours.

Despite these, pseudo-environmentalists still champion solar and wind power that are exponentially more expensive than geothermal or hydro. Truly, there is no shortage of stupidity among their ranks!

Meanwhile, another important point underscored by our other major crisis today in our staple rice, is that this should not be a problem at all since our lands are still able to grow more food. In fact, the IRRI, a most credible authority on this matter, has said the Philippines can achieve self-sufficiency on the basis of five action-plans: 1) expansion of irrigation, 2) high-yield hybrid varieties, 3) credit support (which the private banking system here has always avoided), 4) technical advise for farmers, 5) and construction of storage facilities to address the country’s 5-percent-plus yield losses through spoilage.

In all, solving the energy crisis also helps solve the food crisis, as fossil fuels and valuable dollars are preserved for fertilizers and other inputs necessary for agricultural production.

Between pity and hope, I am more optimistic given the potential of this land, its seas and its people, even as this country drifts down the abyss of poverty and decay.

As we have defined the latent potential of this nation and consider the importance of external conditions, if we, as a nation, are rotten inside, all our aspirations will be stillborn.

We, the people, are what’s inside this nation’s shell waiting to be born. While external conditions are very harsh for our survival, it is up to us to fight the virus that is rotting away at our will and determination to be what we are. Let this knowledge of our great potential be the breakthrough that will make us redouble our efforts towards progress.

Mere effort, though, is not enough for we need to re-invent our methods.

For the past eight years, I have fought to educate the people on our nation’s historical truths, elucidate on its errors and achievements and expose historical myths.

Two great lies of the past decades have been those of Marcos and Erap being bad for our country. The latter has been effectively junked by events of the past eight years, a lie or an error that even the civil society, the conniving politicians and the Catholic hierarchy have admitted to (though the mea culpa has its ulterior motive, i.e. to prevent the popular overturning of the oligarchy’s exploitative plutocracy), while the former, in spite of being harder to erase, makes the case that Marcos’ programs on rice and energy self-sufficiency would have saved us from our troubles today.

In the same vein, we have joined popular actions like Edsa III and protests like those of the Magdalo’s in 2003, Gen. Danilo Lim’s in 2006 and the one in Manila Peninsula.

Now, we have to shift gears and coalesce with forces that have awakened to the truth that we must seize the day for a unified nationalist leadership, dedicated to a program of achieving energy and food independence from which all corollary freedoms emanate. Hence, we must start with the battle cry: “Food and Fuel Freedom for Filipinos Today!”

(Tune in to: Talk News TV on GNN, Destiny Cable Channel 3, this Tuesday, July 8, at 8:45 p.m. to 9:30 p.m., with guest, Trillanes representative, lawyer Rey Robles; Kape’t Kamulatan, Kabansa on 1098AM, Monday to Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 9 a.m.; and Sulo ng Pilipino every Monday, Wednesday, Friday, 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. on the same station. Also, check out: http://hermantiulaurel.blogspot.com)

The Most Productive Senator

DIE HARD III

Herman Tiu Laurel

07/04/2008

With 42 bills filed and two resolutions raised in the Senate, the presence of Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV doesn’t seem to have lacked in any way. Although unable to be physically present, his indomitable spirit, indefatigable energy, boundless commitment and creativity continue to permeate the life of the Senate. His 11 million voters should stand proud for having made such a wise decision to defy the lies and perfidy of the Gloria Arroyo regime by electing him, and the senator has not failed them despite that great restrictions and onerous impositions that have been used against him. Harassed with court cases and held incommunicado to media, and even to his staff, the soldier-turned-senator has nevertheless continued to deliver on his pledge to serve the people.

His service is one of genuine distinction, having taken up the bills that require the most courage to espouse. In particular, of the 42 bills, I salute SBN’s (Senate Bill Nos.) 1448, 1591, 2254, 2273, 2302, 1467, which are, in sequence: An Act repealing the eVAT Law; An Act Amending the Automatic Appropriations Law; An Act providing for a ceiling on all pubic debts of the Republic of the Philippines and for other purposes; An Act that seeks to trim down the areas of investments of GSIS to only those that assure predictability in order to protect the mass of members from the vagaries of trade and commerce; and An Act defining the Archipelagic Baselines of the Philippine Archipelago. For me, these five are the cream of the 138 bills that Senator Trillanes has filed as senator.

The first four SBs I cited above are all on vital financial issues that beset the country, with the first, a thrashing of the eVAT which has put tremendous burden on our people — shrinking purchasing power, draining their cash flow, starving the economy and putting all goods and service beyond their reach. The second SB puts a lid on the continuing payment of our national debt that is done without legislative or public review. Automatic appropriations for payment of the national debt are among the most fundamental of the country’s crises, if not the root problem of this nation. The eVAT has its roots in these appropriations, and the repeal of this law will force an immediate debate on their onerous character, and a review of all debts and our treatment of these can finally surface.

The third SB sets limits on the debts that the nation’s chief executive, the legislature and finance authorities can contract in behalf of the people. This will go a long way in controlling the wanton disregard for caution and of the national interest. As was the case in the NBN-ZTE and NorthRail projects, there has been callous disregard for the concerns of taxpayers when authorities associated with Gloria Arroyo and the ruling power elite contracted debts left and right because they knew these were guaranteed through people’s taxes. As this abuse must end, Sen. Trillanes took a gigantic step to help us contain the “debt mania” of government officials. We should have regular referendums on debt-based projects and all major debt transactions because we, the people and our children, and their children, are obliged to pay these debts which irresponsible politicos — past and present — wantonly sign on to.

The fourth SB reins in on the financial abuse in the government employees’ social service institution. We all should know that these investment funds have suffered wild gyrations in the past decade, losing trillions of dollars in the process — like the Dot.com bubble and the recent subprime collapse now bringing down stock markets and investment houses all over the world. Sen. Trillanes’ bill would insulate social service institution funds from speculation and secure the future of over a million government employees.

Finally, one of the latest bills filed by Sen. Trillanes that has become a celebrated issue a few months ago is the definition of the baselines of the country, which entails a warning that the failure to comply with a timely clarification and definition would cause the loss of the country’s valuable economic zones.

One SB, the act setting limits on the power of the President to reappoint bypassed nominees, is a direct response to the abusive “interim appointments” Gloria Arroyo has been making for her favorite gofers like Angie Reyes. Bypassed for the nth time, Reyes is persistently reappointed, and to a merry-go-round of positions. By the way, Gloria is on an “rejects appointments” spree again, with those rejected in the 2007 senatorial elections getting plum jobs — Mike Defensor to NAIA III and Ralph Recto to the SSS (Neri is only a decoy), while the retiring Albano will be replaced by daughter-in-law Mylene Garcia-Albano as a reward for doing Gloria’s bidding in the energy sector. Government posts are also inherited under Gloria’s regime. Sen. Trillanes has to craft more bills designed to contain abuses by Gloria, over and over the 138 bills he has written.

Meanwhile, we’ll get back briefly to our “Speculation 101.” One aspect we didn’t have space to include in our Monday column is the need for the individual speculators to work together to “corner” the market and command the supply contracts.

The Philippines can fight back in the short term by restoring government and people’s control over the oil and energy sector and, in the medium term, expand its storage capacity for oil reserves to enlarge its purchases before each speculative increase of oil prices. Marcos was on the right track when he established the State oil companies, including oil tanker transportation facilities, but that’s why he was deposed.

(Tune to 1098AM, Mon. to Fri., 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. for “Kape’t Kamulatan, Kabansa;” Destiny Cable, Channel 3, Tuesdays, 8:45 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. for “Talk News TV” featuring Rey Robles of Trillanes’ Senate office on his annual report; and our blog, http://hermantiulaurel.blogspot.com)

Speculation 101

(Herman Tiu Laurel / Infowars / Tribune column for 6-30-2008 MON)

“Oil speculators” and “speculation” have become household wonderments these days, yet few really understand what they mean and how they wreck the lives of people and nations, even the most powerful of countries like the USA. Here’s an attempt at a short course on the subject, where we immediately begin with the problem understanding the term “speculation.” One website gave out over 20 ways of understanding it, but we sum it up to 3. Market speculation is:

1) Taking large risks, especially with respect to trying to predict the future; gambling, in the hopes of making quick, large gains; 2) Speculation should not be considered purely a form of gambling, as speculators do make informed decisions before choosing to acquire the additional risks; 3) As speculation is deregulated, market speculation transforms to market manipulation when traders, financial agents and corrupt high level politicians connive.

In the third sense, risk is practically eliminated and windfall profits are guaranteed. Reading and explaining the plethora of discussion on oil manipulation has been difficult enough, but a useful summary of the article Oil Market Manipulation by Chris Cook guides us through the complex history and present reality of oil speculation:

“By way of a history, the ‘Brent 15 Day’ contract was a set of contract terms developed by Shell in the late 70's/early 80's which—unusually--allowed the resale of ‘Cargo –size’ parcels of crude oil produced by their North Sea Brent crude oil field… The purchase and sale of Dated Brent cargoes is as close as one gets to buying ‘Spot’ Brent crude oil on a market… Enter IPE (International Petroleum Exchange)… In the late 1980's, the IPE tried twice to introduce standardised, physically deliverable Brent Crude Oil futures contracts, and failed because of incompatibilities between the 1000 barrel contract size and the delivery size of 500,000 barrels… So the IPE introduced in the end a futures contract which was ‘cash settled’ on the expiry date some six weeks before the relevant contract month…against an ‘Index’ of the prices reported by market observers like Platts…

“Through the late 1990’s, the decline in Brent Crude Oil production was already causing problems, because market players would often try and ‘squeeze’ the market by buying up as many forward cargoes as they could, and then ‘squeezing’ financial players/traders, who had speculatively sold 15 Day contracts in respect of oil they did not have. Also during this period…new trading tools developed to enable market players to ‘hedge’ the price risk they had between the expiry of the IPE contract and the actual ‘Dated’ delivery…related to manipulation of the IPE contract daily settlement price. This was ‘micro’ (short term) manipulation, as distinct from major market medium term plays involving big trading positions, which I characterise as ‘macro’ manipulation. This ‘micro’ manipulation created losses for the traders ‘on-exchange’ which were more than offset by profits ‘off-exchange’…”

The article goes on: “Developments Post 2001…(on) Brent CFD’s (Contract for Differences)… Important developments in recent years to give rise to a BFO (Bunker Fuel Oil) complex, and a plethora of trading in the ICEFutures (Intercontinental Exchange) cash settled ‘BFO contract’ as it technically now is, and the re-jigged ‘BFO’ market itself. Brent/WTI (West Texas Intermediate), the physically deliverable WTI itself has become increasing irrelevant and during the last few years has essentially become an adjunct to Brent through a massive trading mechanism known as the Brent/WTI Arbitrage… Brent/WTI Arbitrage (in) 2001 and things have moved massively against Nymex since then, as a large part of WTI trading migrated to ICEFutures in London, following the ‘London exemption’ to CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission, US) speculative position limits.”

After reading this dizzying gist, 2 things emerge--the migration of trading to the ICEFutures which had obtained exemption from CFTC regulation.

We fast forward to Cook’s narration of an actual case of manipulation: “The BP (British Petroleum)/Goldman (finance) complex…joined at the hip, both in governance terms--which is a matter of record (i.e. same Chairman, common Directors etc)--and in economic terms, both have made massive profits from energy trading… Structurally, BP (has) always…‘hedged’ (its) Forties (from an oil field of the same name) and…production using the IPE/ICEFutures contracts… Goldman, on the other hand, has long…invested in funds which are ‘invested’ in Brent and WTI contracts and ‘rolled over’ every month. Goldman’s trading arm J Aron has routinely ‘Date Raped’ these positions as they roll over…

“Date rape…Evolution of Manipulation - From Micro to Macro?… BP and Goldman’s ‘matched’ long/short Brent/BFO position has allowed them to act jointly as something of a fulcrum for manipulation. So that when one of them ‘bids up’ the market--the other will make matching profits…(and they) ‘wash trades’ (i.e. laundering trades) ‘off exchange.’ Both parties would then benefit from the fact that this artificially induced volatility made them profits on their ‘off-exchange’ dealings, e.g., they could sell options at overpriced premiums because the volatility was artificially high… In the early 2000’s we saw the entry of hedge funds--speculative money--into the market… What happened is that they (BP/Goldman) now make vast profits as counterparties for these hedge funds, utilizing sharing of superior market knowledge, and the positions held by speculators…”

How do we stop these oil market speculators? An article by Charles Biderman suggests the following: 1) regulate, the way the US Congress is now looking into tightening its oversight on oil trading; 2) raise margin requirements for oil futures traders to 25 percent from the current 7.5 percent, where they can put $10,000 to control $150,000 of oil; 3) require traders to disclose their total positions on all kinds of crude to know who is going long (expecting to profit in the long run through “shorting” the market in a big way); 4) for oil consuming nations like Japan, China, India and the US to make a concerted effort to burn the speculators by buying at the exchanges to deny them. The U.S. can temporarily cease its 70,000 barrels-daily increase (two million barrels monthly) to its strategic oil reserves, but that’s what I mean by “corrupt high level politicians” conniving with speculators--Bush is on their side!

...Our next column: How the Philippines can fight back

(Tune in to: Talk News TV on GNN, Destiny Cable Channel 3, Tuesday at 8:45 p.m. to 9:30 p.m., with guest, Dr. Roger Posadas on science and technology reforms; Kape’t Kamulatan, Kabansa on 1098AM, Monday to Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 9 a.m.; and Suló ng Pilipino every Monday, Wednesday, Friday, 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. on the same station. Also, check out: http://hermantiulaurel.blogspot.com)

Drowned by the ‘Second-hand’ Economy

DIE HARD III
Herman Tiu Laurel

06/27/2008

Late news from Princess of the Stars casualty reports that over 800 may have died in the tragedy. There’s a lot of finger-pointing in the wake of the sea catastrophe, and countless politicians joining the chorus for an investigation of the incident and the government agencies such as the Bureau of Marine Protection, the Marina and particularly the DoTC, which is supposed to be on top of all the related agencies involved in sea transportation in the country. As expected, Gloria Arroyo is pinning all the blame on the few scapegoats in the Coast Guard hierarchy that she can fire and on the shipping company. We’ve heard and seen all this huffing and puffing many times before, but nothing will come out of it for certain.

The Philippines has had eight sea tragedies in the past 22 years, almost one tragedy every two and a half years. While no country is exempt from such tragedies, such as the unforgettable sinking of the Estonia in 1994 that made news worldwide for that small country, that’s only one in 50 or 100 years for all the other countries. Of course, the Philippines is a maritime country and can expect a larger share of such sea tragedies, but the staggering frequency of such sinking in the Philippines, from Doña Paz on December, 1987 to the present Princess of the Stars tragedy, is simply unacceptable. These are clearly not isolated cases but a systemic problem, and that means that not only the shipping company but the whole structure of the sector involving policies and its economics.

The frustration of our maritime sector professionals is reflected in a headline from the Internet’s Maritime Watchkeeper: “‘Sea tragedies bring the clowns to town’… After each sea tragedy, what follows is a predictable and routine series of events purported to symphatize with relatives of victims and the survivors, the start of the finger-pointing season, issuances of headline grabbing one-liners, trial by publicity, imposition of sanctions sans due process, a flurry to hold public hearings and the eventual formation of a presidential maritime task force that would result in a formal statement that henceforth such tragedies would never happen again. Once the media have lost interest on the matter, everything dies down… until the next tragedy.”

The article enumerates the clownish actions: Sen. Biazon seeking a Senate probe, the call for the resignation of the Coast Guard and Marina chiefs, DoTC pinning blame on Sulpicio, the grounding of all Sulpicio vessels, the press release on the subject from Sen. Zubiri’s office and capped off by Gloria Arroyo’s latest headline slamming Sulpicio lines, and then Senate President Villar hurries to add that the tragedy tarnished Filipino seamen’s reputation. The article goes on, “21 years since the sinking of the M/V Doña Paz between Mindoro and Marinduque after colliding with an oil tanker… For the nth time, Congress is set to investigate another maritime disaster in an effort to determine what happened, pinpoint those accountable and propose laws to prevent such accidents from recurring...”

The Maritime Watchkeeper focuses on the Philippine safety classification system for passenger and cargo ships, in an obscured language that I suspect is to cloak the bitterness of its indictment:

“A few years back, Marina ‘opened the market’ for classification societies run by local practitioners. Affordability was the biggest consideration… Our rules allow us to buy second hand vessels from Japan, but would not accept the JG certificate… What is acceptable are certificates from societies local and foreign that are ‘recognized’ by the government. What kind of arrogance is that?”

Deciphering the language I read this: The Philippines allows second-hand ships from Japan that the JG (Japan Government) standard would not approve for safety certification but which Philippine government recognized “classification societies” would approve and local shipping companies operate at the risk of passengers’ life and limb. The bottom line is that our country’s floating assets are second-hand coming off the industrial ass of Japan, 50 years or older, and reclassified as “made” at a later date, such as the Princess of the Stars, which its specifications state was “made” in 1984. The Maritime Watchkeeper is made up of maritime professionals and see this perennial problem of their sector from the maritime professionals eye, but from our political-economic perspective, the real problem is the “second-hand” character of our national economy.

To the Maritime Watchkeeper and all the Filipino people, we say that the problem is beyond the safety classification — it is the problem of our national economy that cannot produce the consumer and industrial goods to serve our people in the safe and first class conditions that we deserve. We are an archipelagic and maritime nation that deserves a respectable ship-building industry to service the seafaring needs of this country. Filipinos are legendary for their ship building skills, from the time of the balangay to the time of the ship-building industry in Sangley, and later the ship repair and building in Navotas.

Decades of deconstruction of the Philippine industrial sector, which once boasted of the first integrated steel mill in Iligan, has relegated the Philippines into a “second-hand economy” in everything — from ships to marine and diesel engines, providing second-hand quality service and safety to its people. The latest word about the Princess of the Stars tragedy is that its steering mechanism malfunctioned forcing it into shallow waters where its hull sprung a massive leak — and hundreds drowned again in the “second hand economy”.

(Tune to 1098AM, 8:30 to 9 a.m., Mon. to Fri.; Destiny Cable, Channel 3, Tuesdays 8:45 to 9:30 p.m. with next guest Dr. Roger Posadas on Science and Technology Reforms; our blog http://hermantiulaurel.blogspot.com)

Stop Beating Around the ‘Bush’

What exactly is Bush going to tell Gloria that they won’t be able to discuss over the phone or through their subalterns? Whatever it is, such publicized visits are intended to communicate something to the audience — in this case, the Filipino and American publics. Walter Lohman, senior research fellow of the neo-conservative think tank, The Heritage Foundation, declared, “Bush is meeting with her not to endorse her politics or anything she is doing but to express his confidence in the Philippine Constitution and the need for her to stay until the completion of her term.” Given that Lohman and his Heritage ilk merely echo what the backers of Dubya really think, we can only conclude that coup efforts in the Philippines are alive and well in the minds of many patriotic Filipinos.

I wouldn’t have written about it if the neo-cons’ analysis were not made public because I’d like to help keep the powers-that-be in the dark about any such moves among patriotic Filipinos. Yet it is foolish to think that we have better intelligence than the US Embassy here, where a surplus of Quislings exist and where the buying of traitors comes very cheap — a US immigrant visa, for example, is enough to buy the collaboration of any Filipino of poor patriotic fiber. All coup plotters must assume the US Embassy gets to know about any plans earlier than some of the other collaborators. In the 2001 coup against President Estrada, I remember how the embassy circuits knew about it in advance, in the last quarter of 2000. It was even my Russian Embassy friends who relayed to me what the British and Americans told them.

The trick, then, to launching a successful coup is not to deny the plot but to create as many plots and continuously “leak” them. More importantly, though, we should continue to explain why these plots persist — that oppression and exploitation of the people by foreign powers that coddle corrupt political agents such as Gloria continue. The education of all those involved in coup plans, as well as making the public understand the reasons behind these, along with the methods for and promises of change from such, are a must, if we are to build the indispensable mass base of support for a patriotic coup. Truly, no coup in the Philippine context will ever succeed without a real patriotic cause because in the face of the US’ power to corrupt, mere power mongering and lust for material benefits will never stand a chance.

Of course, one full proof guarantee for success is to have the US embassy on your side, just as it was in Edsa I and II, but the foreign powers charge an enormously high price. The nation’s plunder, as what was seen after two “people power revolts,” with Cory Aquino selling off our “crown jewels” through privatization, accelerated by clone FVR and Gloria, to the point of the Philippines, used to being just the “sick man of Asia,” now placed in the ICU, drained of blood, is but a staggering example. The only time when a halt to this could have been attained was when they staged the coup against Estrada. The burning embers of Gringo’s 1989 attempt, as well as, the military-civilian protests by Senator Trillanes in 2003 and with Gen. Danilo Lim on Nov. 29, 2007 at the Manila Pen, were all doused by the US Embassy.

Back in 1989, a panic-stricken Defense Secretary Fidel Ramos beseeched Colin Powell to get US Phantom jets to conduct persuasion flights against the rebel military forces. Then, in 2007, US Ambassador Kristie Kenney “leaked” her embassy’s position on the Manila Pen standoff as early as noon, discouraging support, and made formal by late afternoon. Those instances only prove that the US and the Brits, along with their predatory Joint Foreign Chambers, know that they will not be able to stop nationalistic aspirations once patriots are in power. That’s why the US wants a controlled transition from the strongly hated Gloria Arroyo to its next puppet; and why it will not countenance an unpredictable exercise such as a coup with patriotic backing. Elections, therefore, are much more desired since these are more predictable and easier to control.

After eight years of Edsa II, the US feels it now has all the institutional mechanisms installed to derive its desired results. It has survey organizations in its pocket, like the SWS, to create “trending” effects; it has Namfrel and the Church doing so-called election monitoring but whose role has actually been to sanitize any news of electoral fraud; it has unprecedented Big Business control of the economy and thus, election money, ad nausea. By extension, the US powers would then love to enthrone somebody like Noli de Castro — and Bush will probably assure Gloria of safe passage for this to happen. So for those of us who are fighting to make this nation truly prosperous and safe for our next generation, we must cultivate in the minds of everyone the dream of gaining freedom and sovereignty from the exploiting foreign powers and their Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce. That’s the only way to reclaim the vast wealth of this nation for our people.

The victories of patriots in South America are changing the world’s geopolitical configuration. It’s time Filipinos stopped beating around the bush and go straight to the point: We need our revolution now, peaceful or otherwise, and patriotic soldiers and civilians must rally around this call.